The Blog

Friday, 29th August 

How’s the Bellarine real estate market today? Check Ocean X Property’s Market
Update

The Bellarine real estate market is changing before our eyes — and I’m excited to be in a
position to keep you up-to-date as we move into what I expect will be a strong Spring selling
season.

Yes, it’s true: Bellarine real estate has been flat for the past two years. While New South
Wales and Queensland stormed ahead out of the COVID cloud, Victoria — and particularly
the Bellarine — has sat dormant, weighed down by legislation and governance that often
seemed to prioritise control over business.
But times are changing… read on to find out why now is an ideal and exciting time to get
your Bellarine property on the market.

Where We’re At: The Bottom of the Cycle
If you’ve been following the Herron Todd White Property Clock, you’ll see that Bellarine real
estate has been sitting at “bottom of market” territory. After more than ten years selling real
estate on the Bellarine Peninsula, I can confidently say the last two years have been the
quietest conditions I’ve ever seen.

Stock levels tell the story. Across the Bellarine region, real estate listings have been
remarkably consistent year-on-year. Ocean Grove real estate listings — which typically carry
the highest number of properties — had 189 Ocean Grove homes for sale in August
2024. Fast forward to August 2025, and the number of homes for sale in Ocean Grove
is 190. Almost identical.

Real estate trends in other Bellarine suburbs – such as Wallington real estate, Barwon
Heads real estate and Leopold real estate trends – show slightly lower properties on market
compared to last year. This supports the theme of fewer properties available overall.

However, two things can be expected:
1. More properties will begin to come online as we head into Spring, with stock
levels likely peaking around Christmas.

2. This year is different — because unlike previous years, we also expect increased
buyer demand thanks to new incentives.
For sellers, this means it is beneficial to list your Bellarine property earlier in the
season before the wave of new stock arrives.

One factor I haven’t historically tracked is the number of new builds and developer
listings being advertised. At the moment, it seems there are more Bellarine house-and-land
packages hitting the market than usual, which could also be impacting the numbers.

Days on Market: A Key Indicator
If stock levels are steady, the number of days a Bellarine property sits on the market gives
us the next signal. Here too, the story is consistent.

Across the Bellarine, properties are still taking well over 100 days to sell in most suburbs —
a clear sign of a cautious market. Ocean Grove real estate, for example, sits an average of
140 days on market — very similar to last year’s figures.

This metric will be one of the strongest indicators to watch. If days on market begin to
shorten over the next few months, it will be the clearest sign that demand is rising and
competition between buyers is heating up for Ocean Grove real estate, as well as
surrounding areas. At Ocean X Property, we will be closely monitoring Leopold real estate,
Clifton Springs real estate, Wallington real estate, Curlewis real estate, Point Lonsdale real
estate – and of course, Barwon Heads real estate, for signs of the market is heating up for
Spring.

What’s Driving the Next Phase, Why am I optimistic about Spring?

 The 5% Deposit Scheme
From 1 October 2025, first-home buyers will be able to purchase with just a 5%
deposit. Importantly, this scheme comes with no income caps, no participant caps,
and higher property price thresholds. That means more buyers — and faster
competition for available homes.

Pent-up Demand
After two years of flat conditions, buyers who have been waiting on the sidelines are
now showing signs of confidence. We’re already seeing open home numbers begin
to rise for Bellarine real estate.

Seasonal Timing
Spring traditionally delivers more listings and more activity. This year, that seasonal
uplift is set to collide with new government incentives — and that’s a powerful
combination for sellers!

What This Means for You
For homeowners, the next few months represent a rare window:
- More buyers in the market competing for limited stock.
- Faster sales as conditions shift from oversupply to balance.
- The chance to sell into a rising market instead of waiting until after the upswing.

At Ocean X Property, our job is simple: we can’t change the market, but we can maximise
your result within it. That means presenting your property in the best possible light, targeting
the right buyers, and negotiating to extract every last dollar of value.
I’ll continue sharing updates as this market evolves. For now, the message is clear: Spring is
shaping up to be the Bellarine real estate turning point we’ve been waiting for.
Find Your Place with Ocean X Property.

Below you can view the Herron Todd White Property clock with current Stock levels and Days on Market. 

— Chris Schumann